The US Housing Market Will Recover this Year, As long as Employment Improves

Experts are saying that the United States Housing market will recover this year. Home sales will be up, new construction will be improved, and the demand for the oversupply of homes will be met. But, this is assuming that the employment situation improves. The experts are predicting a big increase in Jobs created during march, and jobs is the ultimate fuel of the housing market. Here are some of the key points from the Bloomberg Article:

  • The U.S. housing market is poised to withstand the removal of government and Federal Reserve stimulus programs and rebound later in the year, contributing to annual economic growth for the first time since 2006 according to forecasts by Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital in New York.
  • Sales of new homes still are forecast to increase this year as the economy improves, according to David Crowe, chief economist for the association in Washington, probably totaling 459,000 in 2010, up from 372,000 last year, he said.
  • “A lot of people moved up their purchases to meet the original deadline and that used up a lot of the pool of potential buyers,” IHS Global’s Newport said.
  • The credit of as much as $8,000 stimulated only 180,000 extra sales from December to April
  • Foreclosures may increase to 2.2 million this year from a record 1.7 million last year, according to a forecast by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com
  • The number of vacant homes for sale rose to 2.09 million in the fourth quarter from 1.99 million in the prior period

Let's hope job growth really happens so we can be out of this recession.

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Cities Recovering From The Foreclosure Crisis


Foreclosure Recovery RankMetropolitan Statistical Area% of Loans 90+ Days Delinquent% Of Loans 90+ Days Delinquent (Rank)% Of Loans In Foreclosure% Of Loans In Foreclosure (Rank)% Change In Deterioration Ratio Between 10/2008 And 10/2009Change In Deterioration Ratio Between 10/2008 And 10/2009 (Rank)
1 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 2.6 5 1.4 15 20.51 15
2 Austin-Round Rock, TX 2.4 1 0.9 1 12.44 36
3 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 2.9 11 1.4 17 21.30 13
4 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 2.7 7 1.4 14 16.44 25
5 Knoxville, TN 3.5 25 1.1 4 17.06 22
6 Raleigh-Cary, NC 3.1 14 1.1 3 10.90 41
7 San Antonio, TX 3.4 24 1.1 6 11.98 38
8 Syracuse, NY 3.4 22 2.2 46 29.55 2
9 Salt Lake City, UT 3.5 26 1.9 34 21.96 12
10 St. Louis, MO-IL 4.0 44 1.5 19 22.24 10
10 Wichita, KS 2.9 10 1.5 21 10.47 42
10 Rochester, NY 3.0 12 1.7 27 13.12 34
13 Denver-Aurora, CO 3.2 16 2.0 36 15.26 28
14 Richmond, VA 4.0 45 1.2 7 15.01 29
14 Des Moines, IA 2.6 4 2.1 42 12.73 35
16 Oklahoma City, OK 2.8 8 1.8 28 9.14 47
17 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 3.7 33 1.9 33 18.39 19
18 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 3.4 20 1.6 24 10.44 43
18 Baton Rouge, LA 4.0 46 2.0 40 38.95 1
20 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3.9 39 1.3 11 11.68 40
21 Greensboro-High Point, NC 4.5 61 1.4 16 21.08 14
22 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR 3.5 27 1.1 2 3.89 65
22 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 3.3 19 2.0 38 12.14 37
24 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 2.5 3 1.3 10 -1.04 83
25 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.4 21 1.9 31 10.19 45
26 Louisville, KY-IN 3.8 36 2.3 53 22.93 9
27 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 4.7 64 1.8 29 23.24 8
28 Pittsburgh, PA 3.3 17 1.7 26 6.07 60
28 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 3.9 42 2.6 58 28.33 3
30 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 4.0 43 1.5 20 10.28 44
31 Provo-Orem, UT 3.8 35 2.3 49 16.55 24
32 Colorado Springs, CO 2.6 6 1.7 25 -0.12 79
33 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN 4.1 50 1.3 9 8.18 52
34 Kansas City, MO-KS 3.6 32 1.5 18 4.79 62
35 Madison, WI 2.4 2 1.9 35 1.06 77
36 Tucson, AZ 4.1 49 2.1 43 16.98 23
37 Tulsa, OK 2.8 9 1.9 32 2.28 75
38 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 3.6 30 2.0 39 8.52 50
39 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 3.5 28 1.3 8 -1.72 84
39 Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME 3.1 15 2.2 48 6.57 57
41 Columbus, OH 4.1 47 2.8 64 22.01 11
41 Albuquerque, NM 3.3 18 2.3 50 7.49 54
43 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 3.8 37 3.0 71 19.95 17
44 El Paso, TX 3.4 23 1.1 5 -10.43 98
45 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 3.9 38 1.3 13 1.85 76
46 New Haven-Milford, CT 4.4 58 2.9 68 24.31 6
47 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 4.1 51 2.4 56 16.09 27
48 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 4.7 62 2.1 44 14.50 31
49 Baltimore-Towson, MD 4.2 54 2.1 45 11.74 39
49 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 4.1 48 2.7 60 14.81 30
51 Greenville, SC 3.6 29 2.2 47 4.48 63
52 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 3.9 41 1.3 12 -3.40 89
53 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 5.2 73 1.6 23 9.11 48
54 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 5.1 70 3.1 74 27.17 4
55 Dayton, OH 4.3 56 3.2 76 18.90 18
56 Columbia, SC 4.2 53 2.0 41 6.42 58
57 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY 5.3 76 3.0 72 23.70 7
58 Honolulu, HI 3.0 13 2.4 55 -3.25 88
59 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 4.8 66 1.8 30 5.62 61
60 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 6.6 86 2.6 57 20.09 16
61 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 6.4 85 2.9 70 24.37 5
62 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 3.6 31 2.3 52 0.28 78
62 Worcester, MA 4.9 67 2.7 62 14.30 32
64 Memphis, TN-MS-AR 7.8 92 2.0 37 13.79 33
65 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 3.9 40 2.6 59 3.45 68
66 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4.3 57 2.7 61 7.94 53
66 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 3.7 34 2.8 66 3.15 71
68 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 5.1 71 3.9 83 17.59 20
68 Chattanooga, TN-GA 5.5 79 1.6 22 3.08 73
70 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 5.2 72 4.8 88 17.41 21
71 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 4.2 55 3.8 80 8.49 51
72 Akron, OH 4.4 59 4.0 84 9.56 46
72 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 5.5 78 4.1 85 16.42 26
74 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 4.1 52 2.7 63 -1.94 86
74 Indianapolis, IN 4.7 63 2.9 69 3.38 69
76 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 5.0 69 2.8 67 3.83 66
77 Jackson, MS 6.9 87 2.3 51 3.60 67
78 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4.7 65 2.4 54 -3.96 91
79 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 5.2 75 3.0 73 4.34 64
80 Boise City-Nampa, ID 4.5 60 3.1 75 -3.91 90
80 Fresno, CA 7.3 89 3.8 81 6.68 55
82 Springfield, MA 5.4 77 2.8 65 -1.86 85
83 Toledo, OH 4.9 68 3.6 78 -0.65 82
84 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 7.0 88 3.9 82 6.12 59
85 Stockton, CA 10.2 98 6.1 91 9.06 49
86 Jacksonville, FL 5.9 82 5.9 90 3.33 70
86 Modesto, CA 9.5 97 5.6 89 6.60 56
88 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 5.7 80 3.4 77 -2.62 87
89 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 5.2 74 7.5 94 -0.39 81
90 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 7.7 91 4.7 86 3.05 74
91 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 6.2 84 3.8 79 -5.27 92
92 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 6.1 83 9.0 95 -0.34 80
93 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 10.8 100 7.5 93 3.12 72
94 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 5.7 81 10.3 97 -5.37 93
95 Bakersfield, CA 9.3 96 4.8 87 -5.70 94
96 Lakeland, FL 7.5 90 9.3 96 -6.82 96
97 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 10.7 99 6.2 92 -6.12 95
98 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 8.0 94 10.8 98 -9.47 97
99 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 8.1 95 13.9 99 -14.26 99
99 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 7.9 93 14.5 100 -25.24 100

Methodology
To find the cities that are recovering best from the foreclosure crisis, we used data from LPS to determine how many of all loans were foreclosed in each of America's 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas--census-defined regions used by the government to collect statistics. The fewer foreclosures, the higher the city ranked.

We then factored in the percentage of loans where borrowers were three months or more late on their payments. Metros with fewer mortgages like these, will be able to flush foreclosures out of the market sooner, as these borrowers are likely to end up in foreclosure eventually.

Both of these measures were determined based on a six-month rolling average as of October 2009.

Finally, to assess whether borrowers are keeping up with their payments or starting to slip, we factored in what LPS calls the deterioration ratio, the percentage of loans that are descending further into delinquency to those that are improving. A deterioration ratio of 2.5, for example, means that for every loan that is becoming more current, there are 2.5 that are falling further behind on payments. In other words, the lower the deterioration ratio, the higher the city's ranking.

The full list of the cities best equipped to emerge from the real estate crisis was determined by averaging the rankings for each of these measures for each city.

This is pretty good news for the Utah Real Estate market. Forbes claims that Ogden Foreclosures and Salt Lake Foreclosures are among the top 10 Nationally in Recovering from the foreclosure crisis. Less than 3 perecent of home loans in the Ogden Area are delinquent, and the prices per median income are pretty good.

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